The organizational and geographical transformations after Daesh
Monday 04/June/2018 - 04:39 PM
Many politicians and military commanders have raised cries of victory after the defeat of Daesh.
These cries were similar to the "Mission Accomplished" banner that was used as a backdrop to U.S. president George W. Bush’s speech on the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln on May 1, 2003.
During the speech, Bush announced the end of major combat operations in the Iraq war that the U.S. dubbed “Operation Iraqi Freedom”.
The 2003 invasion of Iraq aimed to depose Saddam Hussein who was accused
of seizing weapons of mass destruction and having ties with Al Qaeda under the
leadership of Osama bin Laden.
“The war on terror is not over, yet it is not endless,” Bush added during his speech, shedding the light on another disastrous outcome, which is the “endless lie”; and after 15 years, it is petrifying enough that Western forces might repeat the same mistakes.
Such old mistakes allowed extremist forces to spread, instead of encountering it; as dismantling the regional pillars of Daesh does not mean the elimination of the terrorist organization, or Islamic terrorism.
The first misunderstanding that can be found here is related to the term “The War on Terror”.
There is no need to go over Carl von Clausewitz again to realize a significant principle of warfare, which is that, “You are still fighting an enemy known for you in both time in space.”
Terrorism, as a recurring phenomenon, is an untraditional war that is initiated by the weak against the strong; and the UN cannot give terrorism an international definition for it.
Moreover, the recognized 30-year-old definition of terrorism does not fit with this enemy who can be defined before engaging with, in other words, this terror and panic cannot be fought, because the term itself does not make any sense, practically or a linguistically.
“The War on Terror” is an ideological term that was used to justify initiating wars under the cover of intervention for the sake of humanity, or as defined by Alain Joxe, “Les guerres de l'empire global” (The Global Empire Wars), with the aim to reform Western interests in the Near and Middle East.
So, Daesh is defeated! Mission accomplished! Here, another misunderstanding surfaces, which is the concept of regionalism.
Daesh militias took over Mosul, the second Iraqi city, on June 9, 2014 and the Islamic Caliphate was announced on June 24 through proclaiming control over transboundary areas in Iraq and Syria; Daesh had three objectives by doing this:
1. Doubting the borders drawn by
the Sykes-Picot agreement that was struck on May 16, 1916 to detach the areas
under French and British commissioning
to justify redrawing the maps of Near and Middle East countries after
the World War I.
2. Establishing an example of a
state based on a land, borders and a government with an independent
administration, budget, currency and flag.
3. Embodying “close” Jihad and imposing
it over the lands, unlike Bin Laden’s base, which targeted a “distant enemy” to reunite the nation; this can be identified as building a “comprehensive society for llbelievers.”
Regional re-deployment:
As soon as Daesh got military defeated in its proclaimed borders, the terrorist
organization continued fighting in secondary strongholds in north-east Syria,
along the Iraqi borders, especially in Deir ez-Zor, the largest city in eastern Syria.
Another areas, such as Idlib, northwest Syria, and the slums of Homs and
Hama, underwent the “camouflage phenomenon”, which Daesh followed by forming
new militia units with different names.
These areas also witnessed another “mercenaries phenomenon”, as some Daesh elements carried out massacres; these elements reportedly are part of the Kurdish units that belong to the Syria Democratic Forces, with the blessing of U.S. special ops forces.
This is not the first attempt of these forces; let us not mention the Allied invasion of Sicily in 1943, or reconstructing and retraining Nazi functionaries like Klaus Barbie in U.S. Special Forces that were utilized by dictatorships in South America in the 70s and 80s.
We must remember how the Pentagon formed units of the Kosovo Liberation
Army through recruiting terrorists and Albanian war criminals who were involved
in arm trade, drugs and human organ trafficking.
The truth is that U.S. Special Forces in Syria are currently rehabilitating Daesh criminals through recruiting them in the Syrian Democratic Forces and other armed units that target the national Syrian army.
As for around 20 thousand foreign Daesh fighters, we can find that their situations vary, leading to different developments; those who were not killed or imprisoned, they can either determined whether to remain or Syria or Iraq, or choose one of the aforementioned solutions, the camouflage, the rehabilitation or become mercenaries.
The majority of survivals are seeking to go to their hometowns or countries of residence , or mainly to Caucasus countries, including Dagestan, Chechnya and Ingushetia.
According to various military sources, a unit of around 8 thousand Chinese nationals,
including 3,000 Uyghurs fighters, returned to Xinjiang to continue armed combat
against Chinese authorities.
The spreading of Daesh once more along the coast line is in fact another matter in light of the transfer of men and equipment from the Near East to the Coastal Desert,
which is deemed a marginal phenomenon.
Intead, we witnessed a fierce rivalry between local Jihadist groups, like Ansar al-Din and al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, according to their goals and interests; as in these areas, it would be wise to address the “Islamist Business” or the “Terror Business”.
We have seen remnants of the Armed Islamic Group in Algeria and the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat flow back to the southeast area of the Coastal South in the beginning of 2000 to take over different oases in remote areas; they worked in hostage trade and smuggling cocaine to Latina America gangs, which control crossing bridges in many West Africa countries.
The criminal activities carried out by local terrorist groups contributed to the development of “mixed threats”, which include drugs, arms, hostages and human trafficking, and sometimes local authorities in the area across the Mauritania Coast and the Horn of Africa become complicit in these crimes. The Libya situation requires a special attention because this country plays a central role.
Libya’s central role:
In March 2011, French president Nicolas Sarkozy and UK prime minister
David Cameron decided to launch a military operation in Libya. And after
the Arab Spring hit Libya, the situation turned into a civil war, the matter
which pushed the UN Security Council to take decision no. 1973 that stipulate
the establishment of a "no-fly zone" over Libya and the dispatch of
humanitarian aid to the rebels in Benghazi.
And while Jean Ping, chairman of the African Union Commission, was negotiating with Muammar Gaddafi, Paris and London made their decision to activate the 7 th chapter of the UN to allow them to use force. Actually, there was an intention to initiate a war against Gaddafi, who was executed following the U.S. approval.
After Gaddafi, Libya got divided between Cyrenaica in the east, Tripoli in the West and Fezzan in the south; as tribes in Sirte, which Gaddafi belonged to, pledged allegiance to many armed Daesh and al-Qaeda groups; until a line of training camps for Daesh and al-Qaeda militias.
These militias sneak into Mali, Mauritania, Niger and Senegal through El Salvador crossing. Until recently, a plan to encounter these criminal activities could be laid, like Operation Serval and Operation Barkhane.
In this context, and in order to save Mali’s capital, Holland gave the green light for a military intervention in Jan. 2013, which laster until July 2014; and starting August 2014, Operation Barkhane extended, allowing more 3,000 men from Burkina Faso, Chad, Niger and Mali, to join the battle.
As time passed, threats in Mali, Burkina Faso and Senegal became more serious as they had no base or continuity on a regional level, therefore, Operation Barkhane and its troops became targets for a new generation of jihadists who communicate and are
equipped better. This development stirred controversy inside of French anti-terror foundations, which is to dismantle the basic foundation of steady operations to launch secret operations, and assassinate leaders and financers of the terror group.
President Emmanuel Macron voted for the extension of Operation Barkhane on account of special forces and foreign intelligence, but this decision, however, did not
consider another worrying development, which is that Boko Haram members got
integrated into groups that overhunt and smuggle elephant and rhino ivory.
Encountering this terror threat requires entrances and exists at ports and seas such as the Mediterranean and the Red Sea.
The expanded threat in the Red Sea:
The comprehensive civil war in Syria led to the interaction of five
levels of disputes:
- USA against Russia
- Saudi Arabia against Iran
- Turkey against the Kurds
- Israel against Hezbollah and Iraq
- Daesh and Al-Qaeda
The following notes can be highlighted Through the latest field developments:
The first level: Achieves gains for Russia
The second level: Achieves gains for Iran
The third level: An encounter that ends with a tie
The fourth level: Achieves gains for Iran and Hezbollah
The fifth level: An encounter that ends with a ties and extends war
The civil war in Syria got extended to reach its near and middle eastern borders near Middle Asia and the Saharan coastal region of Africa. This war witnessed many forms of defects on a regional and tribal scales, as Saudi Arabia took it upon itself to export the second, fourth and fifth levels of the conflict to the south of the Arabia Peninsula; as the Houthis are currently being portrayed by Riyadh as a terrorist force.
There is also the war between ports, which is occurring in the Red Sea and is related to the entire African Horn region. From this perspective, the goal remains to seize control over Eden through wagering a new reconstruction in Yemen.
This is also related to banning Djibouti from going on through the “Chinese Axis”, which is considered the center of this strategic axis, in accordance with the defense and security strategy that was handed to Macron last November; The Mediterranean, Suez, the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean.
And by going deep into the Red Sea, we can find that Qatar and Turkey are preparing the Suakin port to block Riyadh’s aspirations in the Red Sea; while Israel, on the other hand, keeps deploying its submarines, which carry nuclear weapons, in the Red Sea, and until the coasts of Pakistan, posing another nuclear power.
The extension of the civil war in Syria creates a new warzone between the alliance of Saudi Arabia and the UAE on one hand and the Turkish and Qatari alliance on the other hand; this leads to the activation of the fifth level of the conflict.
Financial, field, and ideological redeployment:
The consecutive regional development led to the reformation of finance branches, which are considered the nerve of the war. In fact, taking control over a land allows an illegal access to bank accounts, unlike not having a base, which offers only
primitive ways to fund the organization.
Therefore, what comes after Daesh is a reformation of funding sources and field; as according to the Muslim Brotherhood’s ideology, a Muslim must hate and fight infidels so that they hate them back until Muslims gather to fight infidels.
Some recent Daesh attacks, like in Liège and the Opera neighbourhood in Paris, sheds the light on a permanent kind of low-budget terrorism, which is being carried out by some simple elements; as any crazy person can jump a police offices and
attack him with a knife while saying, “Allah Akbar!”
Therefore, the resettlement of Daesh is the beginning of the formation of a strategy that aims at continuing Jihad in Western societies; and hereby, the consensus strategic integration between local and global terrorism (Daesh and al-Qaeda) revives the ideologies of Sayyid Qutb and Sayyid Ramadan that encourage violence and hiding by integrating into enemy societies.
And we must not forget the Bin Laden, Ayman Zawahri and Abu Musab al-Zarqawi all came from the Muslim Brotherhood womb; and we must repeat that this stream
adopted the main principles of the Muslim Brotherhood that Hassan Al-Banna
founded in Upper Egypt in 1920.
The Muslim Brotherhood’s message was so clear, “Real Muslims should fight infidels
by all means so that the Islamic law can be applied around the globe.
Hence, the stage after Daesh, through a consecutive flow such terrorist organizations,
reveals a state of permanent chaos in order to bring back Émile Durkheim’s
concept of the occurrence of a crisis that cannot be contained because of its
unknown terms, expectations, and deviants. We must read Ammar Belhimer’s
contributions thoroughly.
